Will I Get Audited? What the IRS's Own Numbers Say
Few envelopes cause more dread than one from the IRS. Many people assume an audit is a real possibility every year. The IRS publishes its own statistics in an annual report called the IRS Data Book, and those numbers tell a calmer story. Most taxpayers face very low odds. The risk that does exist is concentrated in specific, predictable places.
What the data says • About 3 in 1,000 individual returns for tax year 2021 were audited, roughly 1 in 300. • Middle incomes ($50,000 to $200,000) had the lowest rate, about 1 in 650. Filers reporting $10 million or more had the highest, about 1 in 15. • Returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit were audited at more than double the overall rate. • About 87% of closed audits resulted in a change to the tax owed. Source: IRS Data Book, 2025, Table 3-1. |
The short answer: about 3 in 1,000
The best way to measure audit risk is to take one tax year's returns and count how many were ever examined. The IRS publishes exactly that. Tax year 2021 is the most recent year old enough to give a near-final answer, because the IRS generally has three years to open an audit.
For tax year 2021, Americans filed about 161.2 million individual returns. The IRS examined about 510,000 of them. That's 3.2 audits for every 1,000 returns, or roughly 1 in 300.
Looking across all nine tax years in the latest report (2015 through 2023), the figure is 0.36%. Either way, more than 99 out of 100 returns are never audited.
Your income matters, in both directions
The IRS sorts returns by "total positive income." This is roughly all of your income before losses pull it down. The pattern that emerges is a U shape.
Middle incomes have the lowest odds. Filers with income between $50,000 and $200,000 were audited at about 1.5 to 1.6 per 1,000. That's about 1 in 650.
Very high incomes have the highest odds. Filers reporting $10 million or more were audited at 65.8 per 1,000, or about 1 in 15. That's more than 40 times the middle-income rate.
Low incomes are not audit-proof. Filers with income under $25,000 were audited at 5.1 per 1,000, higher than any bracket between $25,000 and $500,000. Returns showing no positive income at all, often because of business losses, were audited at 18.4 per 1,000.
The low-income bump has a clear driver: refundable credits. Returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit were audited at 7.0 per 1,000, more than double the overall rate. Because the credit can produce a refund larger than the tax paid, the IRS checks eligibility closely, usually by mail.
Audit rates have fallen sharply
Between tax years 2015 and 2021, the overall audit rate fell from 5.8 to 3.2 per 1,000, a drop of about 45%. The decline was steepest in the middle. For filers earning $50,000 to $75,000, the rate fell from 5.4 to 1.5 per 1,000, a drop of more than 70%.
Staffing is a big part of the reason. According to the IRS, it had 13,879 revenue agents in fiscal 2010 and 8,526 in fiscal 2019, while the number of returns kept rising. More returns and fewer auditors means a smaller share of returns gets a close look.
When an audit happens, it usually finds something
Of the tax year 2021 audits the IRS has closed, only about 13% ended with no change to the tax owed. In other words, roughly 87% resulted in some adjustment. The odds of an audit are low, but an audit is rarely a formality.
One surprising detail: at the top of the income scale, audits more often come up empty. For filers reporting $10 million or more, about 43% of closed audits ended with no change. These returns are complex and get examined more often, so more of them turn out to be correct.
A notice is not an audit
Many people who think they were audited actually received a matching notice. The IRS gets copies of your W-2s and 1099s. A computer compares them to your return. When the numbers don't match, the IRS sends a letter proposing a change.
These notices are far more common than audits. In fiscal 2025, the IRS closed 987,460 of these mismatch cases, compared with 497,621 audits of every return type combined. It also closed 592,773 cases for people who didn't file at all.
The details behind the risk
A few specifics are worth knowing:
A missing 1099 is the fastest way to get a letter. The IRS already has a copy, and the computer match catches it without a human ever reviewing your return.
Losses stand out. Returns showing no positive income were audited at almost six times the overall rate. A side business that loses money year after year invites questions about whether it is a real business.
Deductions are not the problem. Missing records are. Taking a deduction you are entitled to is not a red flag. Being unable to support it when asked is what turns an audit into a bill.
How long the IRS can look back
The IRS generally has three years from the date you file to assess more tax. If you leave out more than 25% of your gross income, the IRS gets six years. If you never file, or if a return is fraudulent, there is no time limit.
Keep your tax records for at least three years after filing. Keep records for property, such as a home or investments, until three years after you sell it, since they prove your cost.
If a letter does arrive
Don't ignore it. Every IRS letter has a response deadline. Missing it limits your options.
Confirm it's real. The IRS starts contact by mail. It does not open with a phone call, text, or email demanding payment.
Read what it actually asks for. Many letters concern one or two items, not your whole return.
Gather your records for the items in question before you respond.
Get help if the amount is large or you don't agree with the IRS's position. A professional can respond on your behalf.
What this means for you • If your income is mostly wages and you report every W-2 and 1099, your odds of an audit are very small. • The risk rises with income the IRS can't verify, losses that wipe out other income, and refundable credits. If any of these apply, keep stronger records. • An audit is rarely a formality. Since most audits change the tax, good records matter more than worrying about being picked. • A matching notice is not an audit. It can usually be resolved by agreeing to the change or showing documents that prove the IRS's numbers wrong. |
The bottom line
For most people, the chance of an audit in any given year is well under 1%. But when audits happen, they usually find something. The practical takeaway is to worry less about being picked and more about being prepared. Report every income document you receive, keep records for what you deduct, and respond promptly to anything the IRS sends.
This article provides general information only and is not tax advice. Tax rules depend on your specific facts. For advice on your situation, please book a consultation with QM Accounting.
Sources
Audit rates computed from Table 3-1 counts of closed and in-process examinations as of September 30, 2025.